Obama's War — US vs IS

Barack Hussein Obama (BO) has declared war, more or less, on the Islamic State (IS).

Obama's war is bit confusing.  He's getting the US into Iraq when his whole Presidential purpose was to get the US out of Iraq?
Does he want to be as popular as Tony Blair?
Or is he just jealous of all the attention that Bibi Netanyahu has been getting ?

Anyway, when the bombing gets going everybody will forget about Israel and the bombing of Gaza.  And Israel will have a better set of political arguments.

After all, ISIS has not sworn to destroy the US, the way Hamas did to Israel.  Another benefit for Israel, is that those who have been claiming, that peace in the middle east hinges primarily on settling the Arab-Israeli dispute, will now have to shut up.

Also,  a  new topic for the headlines:  US vs IS.
It kinda scans.

I think the US will defend Jordan, Kurdistan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.  It will also do something regarding Syria, but I don't think the US will be a reliable ally for the Assad family, who are buddies with Iran.  Iran benefits from the US intervention, and gives nothing in return, so I think a good US war leader would manage to screw Iran, even though it is an ally, because it is also an enemy.

But Obama has not been working on making himself a good war leader, and it's not the sort of thing that happens by accident.  As a result, Iran may manage to outsmart the US and the western non-proliferation movement.  This is not good for anybody.  For these reasons, and to oppose  the Finlandization of Iraq by Iran, I think the Iranian regime must be knocked down, and maybe knocked out completely.  This makes it all a multi-way war.  And if the US is getting involved in a multi-way war, a land war in Asia, then a Machiavelli is required, not the ghost of Woodrow Wilson.  Although I might settle for a Bismark.

Like Golda Meir said: "The Muslims are trying to destroy each other — I wish them both the greatest success".  So this is Obama's opportunity to get in there and start up an even bigger inter-Muslim civil war.   By the time they're all done with each other, there won't be a man standing.  Or so we hope.

The war in Syria has claimed the lives of 100 times as many as died in the recent war in Gaza; But apparently that's not enough to do the job.

Prediction:  Somebody will say this is the Biblical "War between Gog and Magog".  Somebody always does.

My own suspicion is that it was really Saudi Arabia that pushed the panic button.  The US and SA seem to have a secret mutual defense pact.  The US leap to stop Saddam Hussein and, later, to depose him, makes more sense if the Saudis had the right to call on US help for defense.

Of course, it could simply be corruption.  All the recent US Presidents have warm, cordial, friendly, cooperative, genial, benign, chummy, and supportive relationships with the Saudi Royal family.   BFFs, really.  No money changes hands, of course.  That would be unethical.

Presidents are sometimes known by the promises they break.  Here's a promise from Obama: "It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil".

Peace Talks Circling the Drain — Flushed?

To the surprise of nobody, the Peace Process is lost at sea, somewhere near that Malaysian airliner.

There was a plot twist at the end, though.  Netanyahu the Likudnik was putting pressure on Mahmoud Abbas to extend the peace talks.  I don't know anybody who predicted this.  So maybe the Arabs do have the upper hand at this point.   We'll have to watch and see.

Abbas himself just turned 79 last week.  How many more years will he be running the PA?  And who's next?

The PA itself is apparently gone, though.  They've replaced it with a new Arab "State of Palestine".  The current agreements, are only between Israel and the PLO.  Abbas is also head of the PLO.  Will the PLO be dissolved too?

Abbas and the new fake Palestine will get all kinds of lovely paperwork from the UN, and they'll display it proudly and have high-level announcements, and meetings.  And then...   What?   A big strawberry from the Israelis.

The rubber hits the road when Abbas starts importing weapons 'Legally', probably into Gaza.  Israel will stop it.  Then what?  War?  More likely, Abbas will set up mutual defense treaties with a number of states that are already at war with Israel.  This could include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria (ha!), and probably Iraq.   I foresee longer speeches.

They're also threatening to tie up Israel in the ICC.  At worst they can prevent some Israeli leaders from travelling to some parts of the world where they don't want to go anyway.  Britain and the US aren't likely to go along.

Maybe somebody will disband the UNRWA and make the new Palestine take in all the descendents of the refugees.  A fine kettle of fish for Abbas then.  He'll probably retire the next day.

Maybe that's it!  Netanyahu could have been planning this from the beginning.  Once there is a state of "Palestine", there's no excuse for having all those refugees.  Heck, Lebanon could just get rid of their problem by demanding the people in the UN camps be repatriated.  Let's keep this idea our secret for a while, until after Abbas has joined those 15 UN organizations.

If the new Palestine announces its intent to liberate the rest of Israel for the Arabs, I think it would be a declaration of war.  That plus a few rockets coming from Gaza might be enough to start the real thing.  But even the Big War in Europe started with a phony war for nearly a year.

On the other hand, Israel could ask for a do-over.  Israeli diplomats have just ended a strike and Israel hasn't been playing with a full team.

This whole thing could spiral out of control.  Or just be intercontinental flatulence.